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  • Technical Analysis and Market Timing Update for 10/20/09

    A downturn in stock prices today has produced a topping tail so far on the weekly chart. 

    Yesterdays trading strategy suggestion that you should only consider new longs on up days would have kept you out of the market today.  Remember that up days are referred to as stock prices being up from the open and moving up solidly after 10:30am market time.

    Are more down days like this to be expected for the remainder of the week?

    Let’s take a look at the stock charts for a more detailed technical analysis.

    With two days of the trading week complete, stock prices on the weekly chart have so far created a topping tail.  Even though the weekly chart swung to a bullish confirmation this week trading has so far been choppy with no continuous move up or down.

    As noted in yesterdays post, stock prices appear to be reacting to the overhead resistance level at about the 11,100 to 11,250 price level.  It remains to be seen if stock prices can move above this level quickly or a more protracted consolidation is in the works.

    The CCI(20) and the PSAR indicator on the weekly charts continue to indicate a bullish trend.

    On the daily stock chart the CCI(20) is falling from its high of recent trading.  Stock prices are still above the PSAR indicator but are very close to switching to a bearish stance.  If prices can move above the overhead resistance quickly then this rally would likely continue very quickly to the upper trend line at about the 11,500 price level.

    On the hourly chart you can see the bearish trend that started in this mornings trading.  Prices declined from the opening but have so far not created a new reaction low.  The last few hours of trading stabilized and now appear poised for a new move up.

    The hourly CCI(20) is moving back up after moving to the bearish stance and a small move up in prices would send the PSAR indicator back to a bullish stance.

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