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  • Technical Analysis and Market Timing Update for 10/22/09

    Upbeat earnings from several Dow components and the announcement of a crack down on executive pay by banks that are receiving government bailouts created a move up in stock prices today.

    However, yesterday’s loss was only half erased by today’s action.

    With 4/5’s of the trading week now in the history books, the weekly stock chart appears to be creating an indecision week with stock prices remaining firmly in the middle of the weeks trading range.

    The weekly CCI(20) remains in the bullish range and stock prices remain above the PSAR indicator.  If the weeks’ trading was complete, the weekly trading time frame would remain bullish.  We need to wait until after the close of the market tomorrow to make this assessment on market timing.

    On the daily stock chart the CCI(20) is falling and its value is now at 70.38.  Our timing strategy uses the CCI(20) as a confirming indicator so although it remains bullish it is indicating a potential future weakness.

    Stock prices on the daily chart fell below the PSAR indicator yesterday and remain below the PSAR today. 

    As expected, stock prices appear to have reacted positively to the11,000 support level.  A normal reaction to this support level may have become more pronounced due to positively perceived earnings news and presidential proclamations regarding bankers’ income.

    More consolidation around the 11,000 support level is likely to define the short term probability of price direction.  If stock prices fall through 11,000 then more weakness should be expected.  If stock prices move up from here and continue to move above the daily PSAR then a renewal of the upward rally should be expected.

    On the hourly stock chart you can see the drop in prices that occurred at the open then the recovery throughout the day.  The last hour of trading produced a topping tail that may create some weakness for tomorrow.

    The CCI(20) on the hourly chart has moved into bullish territory and prices moved above the PSAR indicator during the last hours of trading.  If this strength continues and this momentum flows into the daily time frame it could produce the strength needed to create a bullish confirmation on the daily time frame.

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    Published on October 22, 2009 · Filed under: Candlestick pattern, Indecision Day, Support, topping tail; Tagged as: , , ,
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