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  • Despite reassuring comments from the Fed that the economy is improving, falling oil prices put pressure on energy stocks today causing the major indexes to end mixed.  Nevertheless, our broad market index tacked on almost 20 points today, even though the candlestick created by today’s market action created an indecision or “doji” day.

     

    Typically, doji candlesticks can indicate a weakening of the current trend.  Viewed in that light, today’s action should be taken as a cautionary signal but not a definite turn in the trend – especially because the longer trend is still up.

     

    Let’s take a look at the longer term time frames in order to create a more comprehensive technical analysis from which to glean some market timing signals.

     

    On the weekly stock chart, prices are continuing their move up from the support & resistance level of 11,250.  A few more moves up in stock prices have the possibility of really igniting a solid rally that could potentially reach the next overhead resistance level at 12,000. 

     

    The weekly price momentum indicator has increased to a level of 106.54 while stock prices have moved solidly away from the PSAR relative price indicator.

     

    On the daily chart you can clearly see how today’s stock market action has created the doji candlestick.  The price momentum indicator is heading upwards and is now at 94.87.  Today’s action was the follow-up day to the PSAR switch that occurred on Tuesday.

     

    A price move above the 11,311.55 index level would be bullish for the market.

     

    This PSAR switch when combined with the weekly status caused us to move into the market with our model portfolio today.  See today’s top stock picks email for more details on the model portfolio transactions.

     

    On the hourly chart prices moved up briskly from the open, fell back, then spent the balance of the day right around even.  The last hour of trading saw a boost in stock prices that may flow over into tomorrows trading.

     

    Trading Strategy:

     

    Given the market internal action it appears safe to consider new positions in strong stocks that are moving up on days that the broad market is also moving up.

     

    The model portfolio moved into the market today.  You can register for delivery of the model portfolio transactions and today’s top stock picks here at the subscription page.
     
    Weekly   Daily   Strategy for next market day based on price position only.  Refer to technical analysis & market timing verbiage for further details.
    Week End Date Weekly Trend Market Day Daily Trend
    12/4/2009 Up Fr    
    Th    
    We Up New Longs On Up Days
    Tu Up New Longs On Up Days
    Mo Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    11/27/2009 Up Fr Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    Th   Happy Thanksgiving
    We Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    Tu Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    Mo Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    11/20/2009 Up Fr Caution Tighten Stops/Take Profits
    Th Up New Longs On Up Days
    We Up New Longs On Up Days
    Tu Up New Longs On Up Days
    Mo Up New Longs On Up Days
    11/13/2009 Caution Fr Caution Potential Trend Transition
    Th Up Potential Trend Transition
    We Up Potential Trend Transition
    Tu Up Potential Trend Transition
    Mo Up Potential Trend Transition
     
     

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